Search results for: the-great-inflation

The Great Inflation Germany 1919 23

Author : William Guttmann
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The Great Inflation

Author : Michael D. Bordo
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Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.

The Great Inflation and Its Aftermath

Author : Robert J. Samuelson
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The Great Inflation in the 1960s and 1970s, notes award-winning columnist Robert J. Samuelson, played a crucial role in transforming American politics, economy, and everyday life. The direct consequences included stagnation in living standards, a growing belief—both in America and abroad—that the great-power status of the United States was ending, and Ronald Reagan’s election to the presidency in 1980. But that is only half the story. The end of high inflation led to two decades of almost uninterrupted economic growth, rising stock prices and ever-increasing home values. Paradoxically, this prolonged prosperity triggered the economic and financial collapse of 2008 and 2009 by making Americans—from bank executives to ordinary homeowners—overconfident, complacent, and careless. The Great Inflation and its Aftermath, Samuelson contends, demonstrated that we have not yet escaped the boom-and-bust cycles common in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. This is a sobering tale essential for anyone who wants to understand today’s world.

Monetary Policy Rules and the Great Inflation

Author : Athanasios Orphanides
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The Great Inflation 1939 1951

Author : Arthur Joseph Brown
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The Great Inflation

Author : Mel Spivak
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The Great Inflation of the 1970s

Author : Fabrice Collard
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"Was the high inflation of the 1970s mostly due to incomplete information about the structure of the economy (an unavoidable mistake as suggested by Orphanides, 2000)? Or, to weak reaction to expected inflation and/or excessive policy activism that led to indeterminacies (a policy mistake, a scenario suggested by Clarida, Gali and Gertler, 2000)? We study this question within the NNS model with policy commitment and imperfect information, requiring that the model have satisfactory overall empirical performance. We find that both explanations do a good job in accounting for the great inflation. Even with the commonly used specification of the interest policy rule, high and persistent inflation can occur following a significant productivity slowdown if policymakers significantly and persistently underestimate "core" inflation"--Federal Reserve Board web site.

Asset Market Participation Monetary Policy Rules and the Great Inflation

Author : Florin Bilbiie
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This paper argues that limited asset market participation is crucial in explaining U.S. macroeconomic performance and monetary policy before the 1980s, and their changes thereafter. We develop an otherwise standard sticky-price dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, which implies that at low asset-market participation rates, the interest rate elasticity of output (the slope of the IS curve) becomes positive - that is, "non-Keynesian." Remarkably, in that case, a passive monetary policy rule ensures equilibrium determinacy and maximizes welfare. Consequently, we argue that the policy of the Federal Reserve System in the pre-Volcker era, often associated with a passive monetary policy rule, was closer to optimal than conventional wisdom suggests and may thus have remained unchanged at a fundamental level thereafter. We provide institutional and empirical evidence for our hypothesis, in the latter case using Bayesian estimation techniques, and show that our model is able to explain most features of the "Great Inflation."

Survive the Great Inflation

Author : Michael Murphy
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Emperor Bernanke Has No Clothes - Michael Murphy Is Calling Him Out Everyone is worried about what's going on with the economy. The Powers That Be continue to frantically give away huge piles of taxpayer money to get the US moving again and they're not willing to see that the bridge in the direction they're heading has collapsed. Investment expert Michael Murphy, however, is doing what few seem willing to do: He's calling a spade a spade, dispassionately laying out the numbers and building a solid case for what is going to happen next in the US and world financial environments. (Hint: It's big and it's bad ) But it doesn't have to be bad for "you." Why? Because after Murphy tells the hard-to-swallow truth, he presents easy-to-follow instructions on how to protect your assets, your family, and your future when the shift hits the fan. Murphy was one of a very small group that sounded the warning on the real estate collapse and the government's costly, ineffective response. He navigated his newsletter subscribers through the mess to a documented 148.5% gain in 2009, and continues to outperform the markets in 2010. And while most of that small group are now predicting deflation, "Survive the Great Inflation" gives you an abundance of facts, figures, charts and graphs to prove deflation is not the problem. It is high "inflation" that will demolish most people's finances and retirement if they haven't planned for it. Past government performance is no guarantee of avoiding future stupidity. In fact, maybe it's a formula for assuring it. You need to get a clear view of what's happening now and the exact moves you need to make that will allow you to prepare for and prosper through what's coming, no matter how extreme. That's nothing less than what "Survive the Great Inflation" has to offer. Michael Murphy, the leading independent technology stock analyst in America with 40 years of experience in the trenches, has put himself in the right place at the right time to know what is happening with the US and world economies. After graduating with honors in Economics from Harvard in 1963, he became a computer programmer in the nascent computer industry. He then took advantage of a fortuitous opportunity at American Express and made a career shift to technology stock analyst. American Express was a venture capital investor in a little semiconductor start-up named Intel, and Michael grew up along with Silicon Valley. He became Vice President: Investment Planning & Control for American Express Investment Management in San Francisco, then a Chartered Financial Analyst. Next, he spent several years at Capital Research & Management/American Funds as a Security Analyst and Director of Investment Statistics. Shortly after the introduction of the IBM personal computer, Michael foresaw the opportunity for individual investors and left Capital Research to found the highly successful California Technology Stock Letter, which later became today s New World Investor. He also has been Chief Investment Officer of three mutual funds and CEO of two software companies. Michael is an award-winning writer with numerous influential articles on finance, and he authored the business best seller, "Every Investor s Guide to High-Tech Stocks and Mutual Funds." He has been a featured investment expert in "Worth, The Wall Street Journal, Barron's" and "Money," and appears on CNBC and CNNfn. Books by Michael Murphy "Every Investor's Guide to High-Tech Stocks and Mutual Funds, 3rd Edition: Proven Strategies for Picking High-Growth Winners" (1997), "High Tech Investing" (Essential Finance 2001), "Survive The Great Inflation: How to Protect Your Family, Your Future and Your Fortune from the Worst Fed Regime Ever (2010)."

Economic Policy and the Great Stagflation

Author : Alan S. Blinder
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Economic Policy and the Great Stagflation discusses the national economic policy and economics as a policy-oriented science. This book summarizes what economists do and do not know about the inflation and recession that affected the U.S. economy during the years of the Great Stagflation in the mid-1970s. The topics discussed include the basic concepts of stagflation, turbulent economic history of 1971-1976, anatomy of the great recession and inflation, and legacy of the Great Stagflation. The relation of wage-price controls, fiscal policy, and monetary policy to the Great Stagflation is also elaborated. This publication is beneficial to economists and students researching on the history of the Great Stagflation and policy errors of the 1970s.

Economics of Inflation

Author : Costantino Bresciani-Turroni
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"This is the most comprehensive and authoritative account of the great German inflation from 1914 to 1923." - Henry Hazlitt As an Austrian study of hyperinflation, this study has never been surpassed. The same is true of the detailed examination of the rise of hyperinflation in German in the interwar period: there is not anything more authoritative. It is a huge study, 466 pages, with a fantastic amount of data and statistical analytics. But the narrative too is very exciting and infused with a thoroughly Austrian understanding of the impact of dramatic monetary expansion. It affects not only prices but also capital structures, political events, and the structure of society itself. Hitler did not emerge in a vacuum. Bresciani-Turroni covers the essential prehistory of a world-wide calamity. This volume is thorough, authoritative, and riveting in every respect - the achievement of a lifetime to last the ages.

Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations

Author : Athanasios Orphanides
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What monetary policy framework, if adopted by the Federal Reserve, would have avoided the Great Inflation of the 1960s and 1970s? The authors use counterfactual simulations of an estimated model of the U.S. economy to evaluate alternative monetary policy strategies. The authors document that policymakers at the time both had an overly optimistic view of the natural rate of unemployment and put a high priority on achieving full employment. They show that in the presence of realistic informational imperfections and with an emphasis on stabilizing economic activity, an optimal control approach would have failed to keep inflation expectations well anchored, resulting in highly volatile inflation during the 1970s. Charts and tables.

The Great Disorder

Author : Gerald D. Feldman
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This book presents a comprehensive study of the most famous and spectacular instance of inflation in modern industrial society--that in Germany during and following World War I. A broad, probing narrative, this book studies inflation as a strategy of social pacification and economic reconstruction and as a mechanism for escaping domestic and international indebtedness. The Great Disorder is a study of German society under the tension of inflation and hyperinflation, and it explores the ways in which Germany's hyperinflation and stabilization were linked to the Great Depression and the rise of National Socialism. This wide-ranging study sets German inflation within the broader issues of maintaining economic stability, social peace, and democracy and thus contributes to the general history of the twentieth century and has important implications for existing and emerging market economies facing the temptation or reality of inflation.

Why Inflation Targeting

Author : Charles Freedman
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This is the second chapter of a forthcoming monograph entitled "On Implementing Full-Fledged Inflation-Targeting Regimes: Saying What You Do and Doing What You Say." We begin by discussing the costs of inflation, including their role in generating boom-bust cycles. Following a general discussion of the need for a nominal anchor, we describe a specific type of monetary anchor, the inflation-targeting regime, and its two key intellectual roots-the absence of long-run trade-offs and the time-inconsistency problem. We conclude by providing a brief introduction to the way in which inflation targeting works.

Asset Management

Author : Andrew Ang
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In Asset Management: A Systematic Approach to Factor Investing, Professor Andrew Ang presents a comprehensive, new approach to the age-old problem of where to put your money. Years of experience as a finance professor and a consultant have led him to see that what matters aren't asset class labels, but instead the bundles of overlapping risks they represent. Factor risks must be the focus of our attention if we are to weather market turmoil and receive the rewards that come with doing so. Clearly written yet full of the latest research and data, Asset Management is indispensable reading for trustees, professional money managers, smart private investors, and business students who want to understand the economics behind factor risk premiums, to harvest them efficiently in their portfolios, and to embark on the search for true alpha.

Inside the Crystal Ball

Author : Maury Harris
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A practical guide to understanding economic forecasts In Inside the Crystal Ball: How to Make and Use Forecasts, UBS Chief U.S. Economist Maury Harris helps readers improve their own forecasting abilities by examining the elements and processes that characterize successful and failed forecasts. The book: Provides insights from Maury Harris, named among Bloomberg's 50 Most Influential People in Global Finance. Demonstrates "best practices" in the assembly and evaluation of forecasts. Harris walks readers through the real-life steps he and other successful forecasters take in preparing their projections. These valuable procedures can help forecast users evaluate forecasts and forecasters as inputs for making their own specific business and investment decisions. Emphasizes the critical role of judgment in improving projections derived from purely statistical methodologies. Harris explores the prerequisites for sound forecasting judgment—a good sense of history and an understanding of contemporary theoretical frameworks—in readable and illuminating detail. Addresses everyday forecasting issues, including the credibility of government statistics and analyses, fickle consumers, and volatile business spirits. Harris also offers procedural guidelines for special circumstances, such as natural disasters, terrorist threats, gyrating oil and stock prices, and international economic crises. Evaluates major contemporary forecasting issues—including the now commonplace hypothesis of sustained economic sluggishness, possible inflation outcomes in an environment of falling unemployment, and projecting interest rates when central banks implement unprecedented low interest rate and quantitative easing (QE) policies. Brings to life Harris's own experiences and those of other leading economists in his almost four-decade career as a professional economist and forecaster. Dr. Harris presents his personal recipes for long-term credibility and commercial success to anyone offering advice about the future.

Across the Great Divide

Author : Martin Neil Baily
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The financial crisis of 2008 devastated the American economy and caused U.S. policymakers to rethink their approaches to major financial crises. More than five years have passed since the collapse of Lehman Brothers, but questions still persist about the best ways to avoid and respond to future financial crises. In Across the Great Divide, a copublication with Brookings Institution, contributing economic and legal scholars from academia, industry, and government analyze the financial crisis of 2008, from its causes and effects on the U.S. economy to the way ahead. The expert contributors consider postcrisis regulatory policy reforms and emerging financial and economic trends, including the roles played by highly accommodative monetary policy, securitization run amok, government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs), large asset bubbles, excessive leverage, and the Federal funds rate, among other potential causes. They discuss the role played by the Federal Reserve and examine the concept of "too big to fail." And they review and assess resolution frameworks, considering experiences with Lehman Bros. and other firms in the crisis, Title II of the Dodd-Frank Act, and the Chapter 14 bankruptcy code proposal.

The Great Reflation

Author : J. Anthony Boeckh
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A guide to understanding and thriving in today's new economic environment Now that the housing and credit bubbles have burst, toppling banks and sending shockwaves through the stock market and around the world, it may seem like the worst has passed. But the full impact of the crises we have recently faced will create far more problems, and unless you're prepared, you'll struggle to regain your financial footing. In The Great Reflation, author Tony Boeckh helps you understand how these crises, and the policies passed to jumpstart the economy, will play out for investments and business, and provides you with the tools to excel in today's rapidly evolving financial landscape. He reveals how similar episodes compare with the current crises and what this could mean for your financial future. Arms you with practical insights that will allow you to evaluate different investment options Explores the implications of the end of the private debt cycle, the possible rise of a new age of thrift, and the new government debt crisis Reveals how you can profit from once-in-a-lifetime opportunities as well as proper portfolio allocation strategies While things may never return to "normal," you can still make choices that will allow you to prosper. This book will show you how.

Central Banking after the Great Recession

Author : David Wessel
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The global financial crisis is largely behind us, but the challenges it poses to the future stability of the world's economic system affects everyone from American families to Main Street businesses to Wall Street financial powerhouses. It has provoked controversy over the best way to reduce the risk of a repeat of what proved to be the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. To describe those challenges—and the lessons learned—the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at Brookings turned to frontline policymakers and some of their most prominent critics. Central Banking after the Great Recession contains the resulting research, leading off with a telling interview between Ben Bernanke, then in his final weeks as Federal Reserve chairman, and Liaquat Ahamed, author of the Pulitzer Prize–winning Lords of Finance. Insightful chapters by John Williams of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Paul Tucker of Harvard University, and Donald Kohn of Brookings discuss unconventional monetary policy, financial regulation, the impact of the crisis on the independence of the Federal Reserve. Each chapter is followed by a lively debate. Contents 1. Introduction 2. A Conversation with Ben Bernanke 3. Monetary Policy When Rates Hit Zero: Putting Theory into Practice 4. Regulatory Reform: What'a Done? What Isn't? 5. Federal Reserve Independence after the Financial Crisis: Should We Be Worried?

Remembering Inflation

Author : Brigitte Granville
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Today's global economy, with most developed nations experiencing very low inflation, seems a world apart from the "Great Inflation" that spanned the late 1960s to early 1980s. Yet, in this book, Brigitte Granville makes the case that monetary economists and policymakers need to keep the lessons learned during that period very much in mind, lest we return to them by making the same mistakes we made in the past. Granville details the advances in macroeconomic thinking that gave rise to the "Great Moderation"--a period of stable inflation and economic growth, which lasted from the mid-1980s through the most recent financial crisis. She makes the case that the central banks' management of monetary policy--hinging on expectations and credibility--brought about this period of stability, and traces the roots of this success back to the eighteenth-century foundations of modern monetary thought. Tackling fundamental questions such as the causes of inflation and its relation to unemployment and growth, the natural rate of inflation hypothesis, the fiscal theory of the price level, and the proper goals of central banks, the book aims above all to demonstrate the dangers of forgetting the role of credibility in establishing sound monetary policy. With the lessons of the past firmly in mind, Granville presents stimulating ideas and proposals about inflation-targeting principles, which provide tools for present-day monetary authorities dealing with the forces of globalization, mercantilism, and reserve accumulation.