Search results for: terrorist-decision-making

Terrorist Decision Making

Author : Alex Mintz
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This book analyzes a series of decisions by leaders of three major terrorist organizations and identifies a unique "Decision DNA" for each of them. The authors use the Applied Decision Analysis methodology to examine organizational and operational decisions made by the leaders of three major groups: Hezbollah (Hassan Nasrallah), Hamas (Khaled Mashal), and al-Qaeda (Osama bin Laden). Decisions that were of critical importance to each organization are identified and anaylzed, to uncover the particular decision rule employed by the leader in question and to establish their "Decision DNA." A Decision DNA is unique to each leader and can be used to explain previous decisions or predict future choices. The authors demonstrate that the findings presented can be used to promote effective counterterrorism measures, and they provide a series of policy implications that arise from their examination of each leader. This book will be of much interest to students of terrorist studies, political violence, security studies, and Middle Eastern politics.

Policy Considerations in Combating Terrorism

Author : Michele L. Malvesti
File Size : 31.92 MB
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This paper examines six issues that presidents and their national security teams often consider as they contemplate the use of Special Operations and covert action in combating terrorism: confidence in the intelligence, challenges of sovereignty, casualty sensitivity, assessments of effectiveness, comfort with the operational units and pressures to take action. These six considerations will continue to affect many U.S. decisions aimed at disrupting acts of terror and defeating terrorist organizations for years to come. As they weigh these issues, it is reasonable and prudent for decision-makers to consider the negative consequences associated with the failure of risky operations. There are equally important implications associated with not taking action against the nation's terrorist enemies when the United States is capable of doing so with probable success. In the end, presidents and their advisers must remain open to calculated risks that can help to disrupt an act of terrorism, deal a decisive blow against a terrorist organization or otherwise produce a strategic outcome in service to the nation.

The Development of Decision Aids for Counter Terrorist Applications

Author : Michael F. O'Connor
File Size : 70.83 MB
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This report describes a decision aid to assist the decision makers responsible for resolving a terrorist crisis. The potential counter-terrorist decision aids described in this report employ decision-analytic methodology. Decision analysis involves the construction of a mathematical model of a decision problem. Typically, a decision-analytic model is developed by decision makers with assistance of a decision analyst. A decision aid is a computer program which helps a decision maker in this endeavor. This report describes the results of preliminary investigations into the feasibility of developing a decision aid for counter-terrorist applications. This process involves identification of the decision-making authority to use the aid, specification of an appropriate methodology, development of an interface between the aid and available data about terrorist groups and previous terrorist incidents, and development and evaluation of the aid. This report concentrated on the first two of these aspects, although all were considered. The work described in this report has been fairly specific in that it was based on a Hostage and Barricade incident in progress, the seizure of the Dominican Republic Embassy in Bogota, Colombia, by terrorists from the group M-19 on 27 February 1980. The decision aid deals with specific actions that can be taken with respect to negotiation, confrontation, or attack on the barricade.

The Dynamics of a Terrorist Targeting Process

Author : Cato Hemmingby
File Size : 46.66 MB
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This book provides an in-depth analysis of probably the most horrific solo terrorist operation the world has ever seen. On 22 July 2011 Anders Behring Breivik killed 77 people when he bombed the Government District in Oslo, before he conducted a shooting attack against a political youth camp at Utøya. The main focus of the book is on the operational aspects of the events, particularly the target selection and decision-making process. Why did Breivik choose the targets he finally attacked, what influenced his decision-making and how did he do it? Using unique source material, providing details never published before, the authors accurately explain how even this ruthless terrorist acted under a number of constraints in a profoundly dynamic process. This momentous work is a must read for scholars, students and practitioners within law enforcement, intelligence, security and terrorism studies.

Spatial Decision Making of Terrorist Target Selection

Author : Zoe Marchment
File Size : 27.24 MB
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Terrorism on the News

Author : Muhammad Zubair Iqbal
File Size : 72.86 MB
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The Terrorist Mindset and Terrorist Decisionmaking

Author : Brian Michael Jenkins
File Size : 72.16 MB
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The following paper identifies two areas of ignorance in the current study of the phenomenon of terrorism: how terrorists think (is there such a thing as a terrorist mind?) and how terrorists groups make their decisions. The organization, financing weaponry, and tactics of terrorist groups have been studied. We have acquired a great deal of what might be called 'order of battle' information about terrorist groups. In some cases, a sizable portion of their membership has been identified; we know their names. Articles, or in some cases, books have been written about a few of the more notable leaders of terrorists groups: Ulrike Meinhof, Ilich Ramirez Sanchez, Leila Khaled, Yasir Arafat. A few have written about their own experiences in terrorist groups; Sean MacStiofain about his Irish Republican Army career and Susan Stern about her experiences in the Weather Underground. Some terrorists in prison have agreed to interviews. Some terrorists still at large have even been interviewed by journalists. It has been reported that the West German Bundeskriminalamt maintains a vast file that includes information on the reading habits, dental records, and musical preferences of known terrorists.

Behavioural Economics and Terrorism

Author : Peter J. Phillips
File Size : 37.33 MB
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Behavioural Economics and Terrorism can be used as a guide to help us think about thinking and, in doing so, to appreciate the deep quirkiness of human behaviour. Each day, people draw on their understanding of human behaviour. This takes place subconsciously for the most part but as situations become more complex it becomes necessary to think more deliberately about how people make their decisions. This book can be used to better understand human action in such contexts. In the high-stakes world of counter-terrorism, every angle of advantage is critical. From terrorists’ operational choices to the way that information flows through intelligence agencies, the book explains the patterns of behaviour that systematically shape human decision-making, for good and for bad. Decision-makers’ use of reference points, their loss aversion, overconfidence, goals and aspirations all shape their choices under conditions of risk and uncertainty. This book helps to shed light on how to use these concepts (and more) to develop deeper insights into the way in which terrorists think about their attack methods and targets.

The Counter Terrorism Puzzle

Author : Boaz Ganor
File Size : 41.11 MB
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The escalation of global terrorism has left populations across the world and decision-makers unprepared. This book attempts to create a manual of counter-terrorism measures on all relevant operational levels.

The Terrorist s Dilemma

Author : Joseph Francis Coughlin
File Size : 48.83 MB
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