Prognostics

The Science of Making Predictions

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Author: Kai Goebel,Indranil Roychoudhury

Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform

ISBN: 9781539074830

Category: Engineering systems

Page: 396

View: 9791

Prognostics is the science of making predictions of engineering systems. It is part of a suite of techniques that determine whether a system is behaving within nominal operational performance and - if it does not - that determine what is wrong and how long it will take until the system no longer fulfills certain functional requirements. This book presents the latest developments and research findings on the topic of prognostics by the Prognostics Center of Excellence at NASA Ames Research Center. The book is intended to provide a practitioner with an understanding of the foundational concepts as well as practical tools to perform prognostics and health management on different types of engineering systems and in particular to predict remaining useful life.

Diagnostics and Prognostics of Engineering Systems: Methods and Techniques

Methods and Techniques

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Author: Kadry, Seifedine

Publisher: IGI Global

ISBN: 146662096X

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 461

View: 5572

Industrial Prognostics predicts an industrial system’s lifespan using probability measurements to determine the way a machine operates. Prognostics are essential in determining being able to predict and stop failures before they occur. Therefore the development of dependable prognostic procedures for engineering systems is important to increase the system’s performance and reliability. Diagnostics and Prognostics of Engineering Systems: Methods and Techniques provides widespread coverage and discussions on the methods and techniques of diagnosis and prognosis systems. Including practical examples to display the method’s effectiveness in real-world applications as well as the latest trends and research, this reference source aims to introduce fundamental theory and practice for system diagnosis and prognosis.

Integrated System Health Management

Perspectives on Systems Engineering Techniques

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Author: Jiuping Xu,Lei Xu

Publisher: Academic Press

ISBN: 012813268X

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 472

View: 5547

ISHM is an innovative combination of technologies and methods that offers solutions to the reliability problems caused by increased complexities in design, manufacture, use conditions, and maintenance. Its key strength is in the successful integration of reliability (quantitative estimation of successful operation or failure), "diagnosibility" (ability to determine the fault source), and maintainability (how to maintain the performance of a system in operation). It draws on engineering issues such as advanced sensor monitoring, redundancy management, probabilistic reliability theory, artificial intelligence for diagnostics and prognostics, and formal validation methods, but also "quasi-technical" techniques and disciplines such as quality assurance, systems architecture and engineering, knowledge capture, information fusion, testability and maintainability, and human factors. This groundbreaking book defines and explains this new discipline, providing frameworks and methodologies for implementation and further research. Each chapter includes experiments, numerical examples, simulations and case studies. It is the ideal guide to this crucial topic for professionals or researchers in aerospace systems, systems engineering, production engineering, and reliability engineering. Solves prognostic information selection and decision-level information fusion issues Presents integrated evaluation methodologies for complex aerospace system health conditions and software system reliability assessment Proposes a framework to perform fault diagnostics with a distributed intelligent agent system and a data mining approach for multistate systems Explains prognostic methods that combine both the qualitative system running state prognostics and the quantitative remaining useful life prediction

Clinical Prediction Models

A Practical Approach to Development, Validation, and Updating

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Author: Ewout W. Steyerberg

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 9780387772448

Category: Medical

Page: 500

View: 8646

Prediction models are important in various fields, including medicine, physics, meteorology, and finance. Prediction models will become more relevant in the medical field with the increase in knowledge on potential predictors of outcome, e.g. from genetics. Also, the number of applications will increase, e.g. with targeted early detection of disease, and individualized approaches to diagnostic testing and treatment. The current era of evidence-based medicine asks for an individualized approach to medical decision-making. Evidence-based medicine has a central place for meta-analysis to summarize results from randomized controlled trials; similarly prediction models may summarize the effects of predictors to provide individu- ized predictions of a diagnostic or prognostic outcome. Why Read This Book? My motivation for working on this book stems primarily from the fact that the development and applications of prediction models are often suboptimal in medical publications. With this book I hope to contribute to better understanding of relevant issues and give practical advice on better modelling strategies than are nowadays widely used. Issues include: (a) Better predictive modelling is sometimes easily possible; e.g. a large data set with high quality data is available, but all continuous predictors are dich- omized, which is known to have several disadvantages.

Prognostics and Health Management of Engineering Systems

An Introduction

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Author: Nam-Ho Kim,Dawn An,Joo-Ho Choi

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 3319447424

Category: Science

Page: 347

View: 1651

This book introduces the methods for predicting the future behavior of a system’s health and the remaining useful life to determine an appropriate maintenance schedule. The authors introduce the history, industrial applications, algorithms, and benefits and challenges of PHM (Prognostics and Health Management) to help readers understand this highly interdisciplinary engineering approach that incorporates sensing technologies, physics of failure, machine learning, modern statistics, and reliability engineering. It is ideal for beginners because it introduces various prognostics algorithms and explains their attributes, pros and cons in terms of model definition, model parameter estimation, and ability to handle noise and bias in data, allowing readers to select the appropriate methods for their fields of application.Among the many topics discussed in-depth are:• Prognostics tutorials using least-squares• Bayesian inference and parameter estimation• Physics-based prognostics algorithms including nonlinear least squares, Bayesian method, and particle filter• Data-driven prognostics algorithms including Gaussian process regression and neural network• Comparison of different prognostics algorithms divThe authors also present several applications of prognostics in practical engineering systems, including wear in a revolute joint, fatigue crack growth in a panel, prognostics using accelerated life test data, fatigue damage in bearings, and more. Prognostics tutorials with a Matlab code using simple examples are provided, along with a companion website that presents Matlab programs for different algorithms as well as measurement data. Each chapter contains a comprehensive set of exercise problems, some of which require Matlab programs, making this an ideal book for graduate students in mechanical, civil, aerospace, electrical, and industrial engineering and engineering mechanics, as well as researchers and maintenance engineers in the above fields.

Machinery Prognostics and Prognosis Oriented Maintenance Management

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Author: Jihong Yan

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1118638727

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 375

View: 5809

This book gives a complete presentatin of the basic essentials of machinery prognostics and prognosis oriented maintenance management, and takes a look at the cutting-edge discipline of intelligent failure prognosis technologies for condition-based maintenance. Latest research results and application methods are introduced for signal processing, reliability moelling, deterioration evaluation, residual life prediction and maintenance-optimization as well as applications of these methods.

Prognostics and Health Management of Electronics

Fundamentals, Machine Learning, and the Internet of Things

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Author: Michael G. Pecht,Myeongsu Kang

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1119515300

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 800

View: 9009

An indispensable guide for engineers and data scientists in design, testing, operation, manufacturing, and maintenance A road map to the current challenges and available opportunities for the research and development of Prognostics and Health Management (PHM), this important work covers all areas of electronics and explains how to: assess methods for damage estimation of components and systems due to field loading conditions assess the cost and benefits of prognostic implementations develop novel methods for in situ monitoring of products and systems in actual life-cycle conditions enable condition-based (predictive) maintenance increase system availability through an extension of maintenance cycles and/or timely repair actions; obtain knowledge of load history for future design, qualification, and root cause analysis reduce the occurrence of no fault found (NFF) subtract life-cycle costs of equipment from reduction in inspection costs, downtime, and inventory Prognostics and Health Management of Electronics also explains how to understand statistical techniques and machine learning methods used for diagnostics and prognostics. Using this valuable resource, electrical engineers, data scientists, and design engineers will be able to fully grasp the synergy between IoT, machine learning, and risk assessment.

Emerging Design Solutions in Structural Health Monitoring Systems

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Author: Diego Alexander Tibaduiza Burgos,Luis Eduardo Mujica,José Rodellar

Publisher: IGI Global

ISBN: 1466684917

Category: Architecture

Page: 328

View: 1392

Structural health monitoring is an exciting new field on the frontier of applied engineering. With the purpose of examining the health of standing buildings, aircrafts, and other complex structures using pre-installed sensors that provide stress and pressure data in real-time, this field allows structural-health experts to act as engineering âeoedoctors.âe These specialists diagnose potential problems in advance using complex algorithms and statistical modeling so that steps may be taken to prevent structural damageâe"or worse, loss of life. Emerging Design Solutions in Structural Health Monitoring Systems seeks to advance cutting-edge research in the field, with a special focus on cross-disciplinary work involving recent advances in IT. This research has enabled structural-health experts to wield groundbreaking new models of artificial intelligence as a diagnostic tool capable of identifying future problems before they even appear. This publication serves as a broad overview of structural management science, as well as an on-ramp for a general engineering audience, including students, educators, and researchers.

Anglo-Saxon Prognostics

An Edition and Translation of Texts from London, British Library, MS Cotton Tiberius A.iii

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Author: R. M. Liuzza

Publisher: DS Brewer

ISBN: 1843842556

Category: Literary Collections

Page: 293

View: 2977

Edition and translation of prognostic guides and calendars, intended as an effort to foretell the future.

Superforecasting

The Art and Science of Prediction

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Author: Philip E. Tetlock,Dan Gardner

Publisher: Crown

ISBN: 080413670X

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 352

View: 7143

A New York Times Bestseller An Economist Best Book of 2015 "The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow." —Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic. From the Hardcover edition.

Prognosis in Advanced Cancer

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Author: Paul Glare,Nicholas A Christakis

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 9780198530220

Category: Medical

Page: 439

View: 1317

Predicting survival and other outcomes is increasingly being recognized as an important skill for palliative care physicians, internists, and other health care professionals who care for patients with advanced cancer at the end of life. There is much prognostic information available that is scattered throughout the palliative care and oncological literature but this is the first time it has been gathered systematically in one place. This bookhas 36 chapters divided into three sections. The first is an introductory section that deals with the principles of prognostication, including formulating the prediction and then communicating it. Topics such as statistical issues, evidence based medicine, and the ethics of prognostication are alsocovered. The second section addresses prognostication in fifteen specific cancers when they have reached the advanced stage. The third section deals with prognostication in patients with a variety of common clinical conditions at the end of life, such as bowel obstruction, hypercalcemia, and brain metastases.

Weather by the Numbers

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Author: Kristine C. Harper

Publisher: MIT Press

ISBN: 0262260794

Category: Science

Page: 320

View: 322

For much of the first half of the twentieth century, meteorology was more art than science, dependent on an individual forecaster's lifetime of local experience. In Weather by the Numbers, Kristine Harper tells the story of the transformation of meteorology from a "guessing science" into a sophisticated scientific discipline based on physics and mathematics. What made this possible was the development of the electronic digital computer; earlier attempts at numerical weather prediction had foundered on the human inability to solve nonlinear equations quickly enough for timely forecasting. After World War II, the combination of an expanded observation network developed for military purposes, newly trained meteorologists, savvy about math and physics, and the nascent digital computer created a new way of approaching atmospheric theory and weather forecasting. This transformation of a discipline, Harper writes, was the most important intellectual achievement of twentieth-century meteorology, and paved the way for the growth of computer-assisted modeling in all the sciences.

Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts

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Author: Stéphane Vannitsem,Daniel S. Wilks,Jakob Messner

Publisher: Elsevier

ISBN: 012812248X

Category: Science

Page: 362

View: 5642

Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts brings together chapters contributed by international subject-matter experts describing the current state of the art in the statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts. The book illustrates the use of these methods in several important applications including weather, hydrological and climate forecasts, and renewable energy forecasting. After an introductory section on ensemble forecasts and prediction systems, the second section of the book is devoted to exposition of the methods available for statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts: univariate and multivariate ensemble postprocessing are first reviewed by Wilks (Chapters 3), then Schefzik and Möller (Chapter 4), and the more specialized perspective necessary for postprocessing forecasts for extremes is presented by Friederichs, Wahl, and Buschow (Chapter 5). The second section concludes with a discussion of forecast verification methods devised specifically for evaluation of ensemble forecasts (Chapter 6 by Thorarinsdottir and Schuhen). The third section of this book is devoted to applications of ensemble postprocessing. Practical aspects of ensemble postprocessing are first detailed in Chapter 7 (Hamill), including an extended and illustrative case study. Chapters 8 (Hemri), 9 (Pinson and Messner), and 10 (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem) discuss ensemble postprocessing specifically for hydrological applications, postprocessing in support of renewable energy applications, and postprocessing of long-range forecasts from months to decades. Finally, Chapter 11 (Messner) provides a guide to the ensemble-postprocessing software available in the R programming language, which should greatly help readers implement many of the ideas presented in this book. Edited by three experts with strong and complementary expertise in statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts, this book assesses the new and rapidly developing field of ensemble forecast postprocessing as an extension of the use of statistical corrections to traditional deterministic forecasts. Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts is an essential resource for researchers, operational practitioners, and students in weather, seasonal, and climate forecasting, as well as users of such forecasts in fields involving renewable energy, conventional energy, hydrology, environmental engineering, and agriculture. Consolidates, for the first time, the methodologies and applications of ensemble forecasts in one succinct place Provides real-world examples of methods used to formulate forecasts Presents the tools needed to make the best use of multiple model forecasts in a timely and efficient manner

Death Foretold

Prophecy and Prognosis in Medical Care

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Author: Nicholas A. Christakis

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

ISBN: 9780226104713

Category: Medical

Page: 350

View: 512

This groundbreaking book explains prognosis from the perspective of doctors, examining why physicians are reluctant to predict the future, how doctors use prognosis, the symbolism it contains, and the emotional difficulties it involves. Drawing on his experiences as a doctor and sociologist, Nicholas Christakis interviewed scores of physicians and searched dozens of medical textbooks and medical school curricula for discussions of prognosis in an attempt to get to the core of this nebulous medical issue that, despite its importance, is only partially understood and rarely discussed. "Highly recommended for everyone from patients wrestling with their personal prognosis to any medical practitioner touched by this bioethical dilemma."—Library Journal, starred review "[T]he first full general discussion of prognosis ever written. . . . [A] manifesto for a form of prognosis that's equal parts prediction-an assessment of likely outcomes based on statistical averages-and prophecy, an intuition of what lies ahead."—Jeff Sharlet, Chicago Reader "[S]ophisticated, extraordinarily well supported, and compelling. . . . [Christakis] argues forcefully that the profession must take responsibility for the current widespread avoidance of prognosis and change the present culture. This prophet is one whose advice we would do well to heed."—James Tulsky, M.D., New England Journal of Medicine

Weather Forecasting for Aeronautics

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Author: Joseph J. George

Publisher: Academic Press

ISBN: 1483258602

Category: Science

Page: 684

View: 2900

Weather Forecasting for Aeronautics provides forecasters and pilots wanting to study more about the art and science of predicting weather with the essential aids and methods for making practical application of their knowledge of the fundamentals of the science of meteorology. The publication first underscores the forecast problem, construction of the prognostic pressure chart, and prediction of cyclogenesis. Discussions focus on forecasting information concerning new cyclogenesis, making operational and planning forecasts, cyclogenesis off the east coast of Asia, application of weather forecasts to operational problems, and cyclogenesis in the eastern United States. The text then ponders on forecasting the movement, deepening, and filling of cyclones and movement of anticyclones in North America. The manuscript takes a look at the movement of cold lows at the 500-millibar level and their influence on surface lows, displacement of surface cold fronts, and warm frontal analysis and movement. Topics include movement of warm fronts, identification and location of warm fronts, East Coast wedge type, and warm frontogenesis. The text then examines the movement of tropical cyclones, prediction of very low ceiling and fogs, and prediction of severe weather. The publication is a dependable reference for weather forecasters and pilots.

6th International Conference on the Development of Biomedical Engineering in Vietnam (BME6)

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Author: Toi Vo Van,Thanh An Nguyen Le,Thang Nguyen Duc

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 9811043612

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 945

View: 2526

Under the motto “Healthcare Technology for Developing Countries” this book publishes many topics which are crucial for the health care systems in upcoming countries. The topics include Cyber Medical Systems Medical Instrumentation Nanomedicine and Drug Delivery Systems Public Health Entrepreneurship This proceedings volume offers the scientific results of the 6th International Conference on the Development of Biomedical Engineering in Vietnam, held in June 2016 at Ho Chi Minh City.

Gliomas

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Author: N.A

Publisher: Academic Press

ISBN: 0128030070

Category: Medical

Page: 464

View: 4385

Researchers’ knowledge of gliomas continues to advance rapidly at both the basic and translational levels, and Gliomas provides a thorough overview of the evolving fields of tumor biology and clinical medicine as they relate to our understanding of brain tumors. Gliomas reviews the current paradigms that underlie these fields, beginning with the molecular epidemiology of glioma susceptibility and prognosis through population-based science and genome-wide association studies. The book’s discussion of imaging modalities extends beyond advances in anatomical imaging to include metabolic and physiological studies. This work provides thorough discussion of the clinical view of tumors, ranging from the presentation of the patient to surgical management, and covers all therapeutic options for patient care, including chemotherapy, targeted molecular therapies, immunotherapies, and even personalized approaches to impact the set of lesions. Additionally, the book discusses radiotherapy with regard to the many options available to treat patients using myriad fractionated techniques with various sources. Finally, Gliomas reviews issues specific to the quality of life for patients, and techniques for maximizing the effect of caregivers. Edited and authored by premier researchers from around the world, Gliomas is a comprehensive reference for clinicians and researchers seeking the most up-to-date information on gliomas, and a guide to the best ways to effectively manage glioma patients and their care. Synthesizes widely dispersed information on the management of gliomas into one comprehensive resource Chapters written by international authors who are preeminent researchers in the field Fully explores the therapeutic options for patient care, from chemotherapy to radiotherapy to personalized approaches

Breast Cancer Screening

Making Sense of Complex and Evolving Evidence

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Author: Nehmat Houssami,Diana Miglioretti

Publisher: Academic Press

ISBN: 0128024941

Category: Medical

Page: 456

View: 9764

Breast Cancer Screening: Making Sense of Complex and Evolving Evidence covers broad aspects of breast cancer screening specifically focusing on current evidence, emerging evidence, and issues that will be critical for future breast screening practice such as tailored screening and shared decision-making in breast screening. The scope of the book is relevant to a global audience. This book provides balanced perspectives on this increasingly controversial topic, using scientific evidence to explain the evolution of knowledge relating to breast cancer screening. Breast Cancer Screening covers the key points related to this debate including the context of increasingly complex and conflicting evidence, divergent opinions on the benefits and harms of breast screening, and variability in screening practice and outcomes across settings around the world. Explains complex and evolving evidence on breast screening with a balanced approach Provides balanced information and up-to-date evidence in an increasingly complex area Addresses emerging topical issues such as screening trials of digital breast tomosynthesis, tailored breast screening, and shared decision-making in breast screening Assists academics and researchers in identifying areas needing further research

Molecular Diagnostics for Dermatology

Practical Applications of Molecular Testing for the Diagnosis and Management of the Dermatology Patient

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Author: Gregory A. Hosler,Kathleen M. Murphy

Publisher: Springer Science & Business

ISBN: 364254066X

Category: Medical

Page: 356

View: 5990

Molecular diagnostics is an exploding field, and recent advances in our understanding of the molecular basis of disease have provided a platform for the development of new diagnostic tests as well as tests to predict tumor behavior and potential response to targeted therapy. This textbook provides a reference and practical guide to molecular diagnostics for dermatologists and dermatopathologists. It outlines our current understanding of the molecular underpinnings of dermatologic disease, describes the appropriate use of currently available molecular tests, and explains the interpretation of these tests in the context of diagnosis and management. Tests relating to various disorders are covered, including but not confined to melanoma, genodermatoses, and infectious disease. Pitfalls are highlighted and user-friendly algorithmic approaches, presented.

Epigenetic Biomarkers and Diagnostics

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Author: José Luis García-Giménez

Publisher: Academic Press

ISBN: 0128019212

Category: Science

Page: 696

View: 5266

Epigenetic Biomarkers and Diagnostics comprises 31 chapters contributed by leading active researchers in basic and clinical epigenetics. The book begins with the basis of epigenetic mechanisms and descriptions of epigenetic biomarkers that can be used in clinical diagnostics and prognostics. It goes on to discuss classical methods and next generation sequencing-based technologies to discover and analyze epigenetic biomarkers. The book concludes with an account of DNA methylation, post-translational modifications and noncoding RNAs as the most promising biomarkers for cancer (i.e. breast, lung, colon, etc.), metabolic disorders (i.e. diabetes and obesity), autoimmune diseases, infertility, allergy, infectious diseases, and neurological disorders. The book describes the challenging aspects of research in epigenetics, and current findings regarding new epigenetic elements and modifiers, providing guidance for researchers interested in the most advanced technologies and tested biomarkers to be used in the clinical diagnosis or prognosis of disease. Focuses on recent progress in several areas of epigenetics, general concepts regarding epigenetics, and the future prospects of this discipline in clinical diagnostics and prognostics Describes the importance of the quality of samples and clinical associated data, and also the ethical issues for epigenetic diagnostics Discusses the advances in epigenomics technologies, including next-generation sequencing based tools and applications Expounds on the utility of epigenetic biomarkers for diagnosis and prognosis of several diseases, highlighting the study of these biomarkers in cancer, cardiovascular and metabolic diseases, infertility, and infectious diseases Includes a special section that discusses the relevance of biobanks in the maintenance of high quality biosamples and clinical-associated data, and the relevance of the ethical aspects in epigenetic studies