Die Berechnung der Zukunft

Warum die meisten Prognosen falsch sind und manche trotzdem zutreffen - Der New York Times Bestseller

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Author: Nate Silver

Publisher: Heyne Verlag

ISBN: 3641112702

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 656

View: 4173

Zuverlässige Vorhersagen sind doch möglich! Nate Silver ist der heimliche Gewinner der amerikanischen Präsidentschaftswahlen 2012: ein begnadeter Statistiker, als »Prognose-Popstar« und »Wundernerd« weltberühmt geworden. Er hat die Wahlergebnisse aller 50 amerikanischen Bundesstaaten absolut exakt vorausgesagt – doch damit nicht genug: Jetzt zeigt Nate Silver, wie seine Prognosen in Zukunft Terroranschläge, Umweltkatastrophen und Finanzkrisen verhindern sollen. Gelingt ihm die Abschaffung des Zufalls? Warum werden Wettervorhersagen immer besser, während die Terrorattacken vom 11.09.2001 niemand kommen sah? Warum erkennen Ökonomen eine globale Finanzkrise nicht einmal dann, wenn diese bereits begonnen hat? Das Problem ist nicht der Mangel an Informationen, sondern dass wir die verfügbaren Daten nicht richtig deuten. Zuverlässige Prognosen aber würden uns helfen, Zufälle und Ungewissheiten abzuwehren und unser Schicksal selbst zu bestimmen. Nate Silver zeigt, dass und wie das geht. Erstmals wendet er seine Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung nicht nur auf Wahlprognosen an, sondern auf die großen Probleme unserer Zeit: die Finanzmärkte, Ratingagenturen, Epidemien, Erdbeben, den Klimawandel, den Terrorismus. In all diesen Fällen gibt es zahlreiche Prognosen von Experten, die er überprüft – und erklärt, warum sie meist falsch sind. Gleichzeitig schildert er, wie es gelingen kann, im Rauschen der Daten die wesentlichen Informationen herauszufiltern. Ein unterhaltsamer und spannender Augenöffner!

Die Berechnung der Zukunft

Warum die meisten Prognosen falsch sind und manche trotzdem zutreffen - Der New York Times Bestseller

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Author: Nate Silver

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: 9783453200487

Category:

Page: 654

View: 9916

The Rest Is Noise

Listening to the Twentieth Century

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Author: Alex Ross

Publisher: Farrar, Straus and Giroux

ISBN: 9781429932882

Category: History

Page: 640

View: 364

The scandal over modern music has not died down. While paintings by Pablo Picasso and Jackson Pollock sell for a hundred million dollars or more, shocking musical works from Stravinsky's Rite of Spring onward still send ripples of unease through audiences. At the same time, the influence of modern music can be felt everywhere. Avant-garde sounds populate the soundtracks of Hollywood thrillers. Minimalist music has had a huge effect on rock, pop, and dance music from the Velvet Underground onward. Alex Ross, the brilliant music critic for The New Yorker, shines a bright light on this secret world, and shows how it has pervaded every corner of twentieth century life. The Rest Is Noise takes the reader inside the labyrinth of modern sound. It tells of maverick personalities who have resisted the cult of the classical past, struggled against the indifference of a wide public, and defied the will of dictators. Whether they have charmed audiences with the purest beauty or battered them with the purest noise, composers have always been exuberantly of the present, defying the stereotype of classical music as a dying art. Ross, in this sweeping and dramatic narrative, takes us from Vienna before the First World War to Paris in the twenties, from Hitler's Germany and Stalin's Russia to downtown New York in the sixties and seventies. We follow the rise of mass culture and mass politics, of dramatic new technologies, of hot and cold wars, of experiments, revolutions, riots, and friendships forged and broken. In the tradition of Simon Schama's The Embarrassment of Riches and Louis Menand's The Metaphysical Club, the end result is not so much a history of twentieth-century music as a history of the twentieth century through its music.

Noise

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Author: Russell Smith

Publisher: The Porcupine's Quill

ISBN: 9780889841970

Category: Fiction

Page: 266

View: 9179

A fast-paced comic extravaganza from the pen of the author of the runaway bestseller How Insensitive. Set in the cynical and celebrity-obsessed world of mainstream media, and alternatively in the stultifying conservatism of suburban sprawl, a failed musician and intellectual nerd has become a freelance magazine writer and unwillingly been cast into the role of fashion arbiter. Reluctantly, and only for the money, James Rainer Willing agrees to interview the reclusive nationalist Canadian poet Ludwig Boben for the prestigious American magazine Glitter. Willing's insanely busy and competitive life provides glimpses into the world of fashion photography, small-press poetry readings, expensive and fashionable restaurants (he is a restaurant critic), `lifestyle' magazines, and a return to the suddenly-quiet life or non-life of ghostly New Munich, Ontario, where Willing revisits his one-time peers, the People Who Stayed Behind.

Noise

The Political Economy of Music

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Author: Jacques Attali

Publisher: Manchester University Press

ISBN: 9780719014710

Category: Music

Page: 179

View: 9740

The Signal and the Noise

Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Author: Nate Silver

Publisher: Penguin

ISBN: 1101595957

Category: Political Science

Page: 544

View: 9991

One of Wall Street Journal's Best Ten Works of Nonfiction in 2012 New York Times Bestseller “Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the Vietnam War…could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade.” —New York Times Book Review "Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." —Rachel Maddow, author of Drift "A serious treatise about the craft of prediction—without academic mathematics—cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism." —New York Review of Books Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.

Noise

An Occupational Hazard and Public Nuisance

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Author: Alan Bell

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: N.A

Category: Noise

Page: 131

View: 7971

Efficient Transient Noise Analysis in Circuit Simulation

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Author: Thorsten Sickenberger

Publisher: Logos Verlag Berlin GmbH

ISBN: 3832519548

Category:

Page: 149

View: 2954

The current technological progress in microelectronics is driven by the desire to decrease feature sizes, increase frequencies and the need for low supply voltages. Amongst other effects the signal-to-noise ratio decreases and the transient noise analysis becomes necessary in the simulation of electronic circuits. Taking the inner electronic noise into account by means of Gaussian white noise currents, mathematical modelling leads to stochastic differential algebraic equations (SDAEs) with a large number of small noise sources. The simulation of such systems requires an efficient numerical time integration by mean-square convergent numerical methods.In this thesis, adaptive linear multi-step Maruyama schemes to solve stochastic differential equations (SDEs) and SDAEs are developed. A reliable local error estimate for systems with small noise is provided and a strategy for controlling the step-size and the number of solution paths simultaneously in one approximation is presented.Numerical experiments on industrial relevant real-life applications illustrate the theoretical findings.

White noise

Rechts-Rock, Skinhead-Musik, Blood & Honour : Einblicke in die internationale Neonazi-Musik-Szene

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Author: N.A

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: N.A

Category: Fascism

Page: 167

View: 7502

Noise

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Author: Bart Kosko

Publisher: Penguin

ISBN: 1440627150

Category: Science

Page: 272

View: 3521

The science commentator author of the best-selling Fuzzy Thinking presents a scientific history of noise for general readers, defining noise as an unaesthetic signal that occurs at every level of the universe that has made significant contributions in each period from the ice age to the information age. 20,000 first printing.

Fundamentals of Noise and Vibration

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Author: Frank Fahy,John Walker

Publisher: CRC Press

ISBN: 9780419241805

Category: Architecture

Page: 536

View: 847

Fundamentals of Noise and Vibration is based on the first semester of the postgraduate Masters' course in Sound and Vibration Studies at the Institute of Sound and Vibration Research, at the University of Southampton. The main objective of the course is to provide students with the skills and knowledge required to practise in the field of noise and vibration control technology. Readers do not need prior formal training in acoustics although a basic understanding of mechanics, fluid dynamics and applied mathematics is required. Many of the chapters use examples of models and forms of analysis to illustrate the principles that they introduce. By pointing toward the practical application of these fundamental principles and methods, the book will benefit those wishing to extend their knowledge and understanding of acoustic and vibration technology for professional purposes. Advanced Applications in Acoustucs, Noise and Vibration serves as a companion volume.

Rhythm and Noise

An Aesthetics of Rock

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Author: Theodore Gracyk

Publisher: I.B.Tauris

ISBN: 9781860640902

Category: Music

Page: 280

View: 1942

Describes what makes rock music rock. Argues that rock and roll is a performance style, and that it is distinguished by how it is mediated by technology.

Hazardous Exposure to Steady-state and Intermittent Noise

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Author: National Research Council (U.S.). Working Group on Hazardous Exposure to Intermittent and Steady-State Noise,John H. Mills

Publisher: National Academies

ISBN: N.A

Category: Deafness, Noise induced

Page: 22

View: 1039

White Noise

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Author: Don DeLillo

Publisher: Pan Macmillan

ISBN: 0330474022

Category: Fiction

Page: 384

View: 7929

Jack Gladney is the creator and chairman of Hitler studies at the College-on-the-Hill. This is the story of his absurd life; a life that is going well enough, until a chemical spill from a rail car releases an 'Airborne Toxic Event' and Jack is forced to confront his biggest fear - his own mortality. White Noise is an effortless combination of social satire and metaphysical dilemma in which Don DeLillo exposes our rampant consumerism, media saturation and novelty intellectualism. It captures the particular strangeness of life lived when the fear of death cannot be denied, repressed or obscured and ponders the role of the family in a time when the very meaning of our existence is under threat.

Handbook of Noise and Vibration Control

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Author: Malcolm J. Crocker

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 0471395994

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 1569

View: 6286

Two of the most acclaimed reference works in the area of acoustics in recent years have been our Encyclopedia of Acoustics, 4 Volume set and the Handbook of Acoustics spin–off. These works, edited by Malcolm Crocker, positioned Wiley as a major player in the acoustics reference market. With our recently published revision of Beranek & Ver′s Noise and Vibration Control Engineering, Wiley is a highly respected name in the acoustics business. Crocker′s new handbook covers an area of great importance to engineers and designers. Noise and vibration control is one largest areas of application of the acoustics topics covered in the successful encyclopedia and handbook. It is also an area that has been under–published in recent years. Crocker has positioned this reference to cover the gamut of topics while focusing more on the applications to industrial needs. In this way the book will become the best single source of need–to–know information for the professional markets.

Noise

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Author: Hal Clement

Publisher: Macmillan

ISBN: 1429972122

Category: Fiction

Page: 256

View: 2994

Hal Clement, the dean of hard science fiction, has written a new planetary adventure in the tradition of his classic Mission of Gravity. It is the kind of story that made his reputation as a meticulous designer of otherworldly settings that are utterly convincing because they are constructed from the ground up using established principles of orbital mechanics, geology, chemistry, biology, and other sciences. Kainui is one of a pair of double planets circling a pair of binary stars. Mike Hoani has come there to study the language of the colonists, to analyze its evolution in the years since settlement. But Kainui is an ocean planet. Although settled by Polynesians, it is anything but a tropical paradise. The ocean is 1,700 miles deep, with no solid ground anywhere. The population is scattered in cities on floating artificial islands with no fixed locations. The atmosphere isn't breathable, and lightning, waterspouts, and tsunamis are constant. Out on the great planetary ocean, self-sufficiency is crucial, and far from any floating city, on a small working-family ship, anything can happen. There are, for instance, pirates. Mike's academic research turns into an exotic nautical adventure unlike anything he could have imagined. At the Publisher's request, this title is being sold without Digital Rights Management Software (DRM) applied.

Noise

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Author: Rupert Taylor

Publisher: Penguin Books

ISBN: N.A

Category: Noise

Page: 268

View: 2094

Noise - Klang zwischen Musik und Lärm

Zu einer Praxeologie des Auditiven

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Author: Kai Ginkel

Publisher: transcript Verlag

ISBN: 3839439280

Category: Music

Page: 272

View: 5640

Wann wird Klang zur Musik, wann wird er als Lärm erfahren? Welche sozialen Praktiken stehen dahinter? »Noise«, eine Spielart der Klang- und Musikproduktion, die sich durch einen Fokus auf das Geräusch auszeichnet, ist prädestiniert dafür, musikalische Sinnstiftung zu untersuchen. Kai Ginkel ergründet diese, indem er Soziologie, Ethnografie und Sound Studies miteinander in Dialog bringt. Schwerpunkte seiner Studie sind Verkörperung, Raum, Konflikt sowie Wissen und Kompetenz.

The Noise Manual

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Author: Elliott H. Berger

Publisher: AIHA

ISBN: 1931504024

Category: Reference

Page: 796

View: 2393

This reference for hearing conservation professionals covers noise-related issues within the workplace and the community. Eighteen contributions from researchers and audiologists are organized into sections on the fundamentals of sound, vibration, and hearing; elements of a hearing conservation program (HCP); noise interference and annoyance; and regulations, standards, and laws. A sampling of topics includes the anatomy and physiology of the ear, hearing protection devices, audiometric monitoring phase of the HCP, room noise criteria, and workers' compensation.