Expert Political Judgment

How Good is It? how Can We Know?

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Author: Philip Tetlock

Publisher: Princeton University Press

ISBN: 0691123020

Category: Political Science

Page: 321

View: 8857

The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making.

Expert Political Judgment

How Good Is It? How Can We Know?

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Author: Philip E. Tetlock

Publisher: Princeton University Press

ISBN: 1400888816

Category: Political Science

Page: 368

View: 2182

Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.

Der Igel und der Fuchs

Essay über Tolstojs Geschichtsverständnis

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Author: Isaiah Berlin

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: 9783518224427

Category:

Page: 104

View: 5443

Blink!

Die Macht des Moments

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Author: Malcolm Gladwell

Publisher: Campus Verlag

ISBN: 3593405008

Category: Science

Page: 264

View: 3777

Jeder kennt sie: Momente, in denen wir denken, ohne zu denken.Wir nennen sie Intuition oder Bauchgefühl. Aber sie sind viel mehr: Unser Gehirn arbeitet dann auf Hochtouren, um uns die richtigen Entscheidungen zu liefern. Malcolm Gladwell erklärt die Macht dieses Augenblicks und zeigt, wie wir unsere verborgene Intelligenz trainieren und besser nutzen können.

Superforecasting – Die Kunst der richtigen Prognose

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Author: Philip E. Tetlock,Dan Gardner

Publisher: S. Fischer Verlag

ISBN: 3104029598

Category: Political Science

Page: 336

View: 5134

Der Psychologe und Politikwissenschaftler Philip Tetlock gibt in seinem leichtverständlichen Wissenschafts-Sachbuch ›Superforecasting. Die Kunst der richtigen Prognose‹ eine Anleitung für treffsichere Prognosen in einer unsicheren Zeit. »Superforecaster« sind Menschen, denen erstaunlich gute Vorhersagen in allen Bereichen gelingen – bessere als den Experten. Was macht sie so besonders? In einem großangelegten Forschungsprojekt ist Philip Tetlock dieser Frage nachgegangen und hat das Erfolgsgeheimnis der Superprognostiker gelüftet. Anhand anschaulicher und unterhaltsamer Beispiele zeigt er, wie wir alle bessere Prognosen für unser Leben machen können – denn wenn wir darüber nachdenken, eine neue Stelle zu suchen, zu heiraten, ein Haus zu kaufen, Geld zu investieren, ein Produkt auf den Markt zu bringen oder uns zur Ruhe zu setzen, dann hängen unsere Entscheidungen davon ab, was wir von der Zukunft erwarten. Ein wichtiges und nützliches Buch, um sich in einer immer komplexeren Welt besser zurechtzufinden.

Aus der Welt

Grenzen der Entscheidung oder Eine Freundschaft, die unser Denken verändert hat

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Author: Michael Lewis

Publisher: Campus Verlag

ISBN: 3593506866

Category: BUSINESS & ECONOMICS

Page: 359

View: 4452

Lewis verknüpft die Biografien der beiden Psychologen Daniel Kahneman und Amos Tversky mit ihren Forschungsarbeiten und zeigt, wie aus ihren Arbeiten eine neue Wissenschaftsdisziplin, die Verhaltensökonomik, entstehen konnte.

Das politische Gehirn

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Author: Drew Westen

Publisher: Suhrkamp Verlag

ISBN: 3518772104

Category: Political Science

Page: 182

View: 6971

»Das interessanteste und informativste Buch über Politik, das ich seit Jahren gelesen habe.« Bill Clinton Seit der Aufklärung gehen wir davon aus, daß Menschen sich bei politischen Entscheidungen in erster Linie von rationalen Kosten-Nutzen-Kalkulationen leiten lassen. Der Psychologe Drew Westen stellte diese Überzeugung mit einer Reihe spektakulärer Experimente in Frage. Er konnte zeigen, daß Emotionen, etwa vor Wahlen, eine mindestens ebenso wichtige Rolle spielen. Diesen Gedanken entfaltet Westen anhand zahlreicher Beispiele aus der jüngeren US-Wahlkampfgeschichte in seinem Buch »Das politische Gehirn«; auch hierzulande wächst seitdem in Politik und Wissenschaft das Interesse an der Bedeutung der Emotionen. Die deutsche Ausgabe enthält neben den zentralen Kapiteln des US-Bestsellers ein ausführliches Interview, in dem Westen sich mit der Kritik an seinem Ansatz, mit der Politik Barack Obamas und der Situation in anderen Ländern auseinandersetzt.

Left Brain, Right Stuff

How Leaders Make Winning Decisions

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Author: Phil Rosenzweig

Publisher: Profile Books

ISBN: 184765973X

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 435

View: 5551

Dozens of books have been published recently on the errors and biases that affect our judgments and choices. Drawing on cognitive science, their lessons are excellent for many kinds of decisions - consumer choice and financial investments, for example - but stop short of addressing many of the most important decisions we face in management, where we can actively influence outcomes and where competitive forces mean we have to outperform rivals. As Phil Rosenzweig shows, drawing on examples from business, sports and politics, this sort of decision-making relies on mastering two very different abilities. First, the analytical problem-solving skills associated with the brain's left hemisphere; and second, what Tom Wolfe called 'the Right Stuff': the ability to take calculated risks. Bringing fresh and often surprising insights to topics including confidence and overconfidence, the uses and limits of decision models, leadership and authenticity, expert performance and deliberate practice, competitive bidding and new venture management, Left Brain, Right Stuff, the myth-busting follow-up to The Halo Effect, explains how to perform when making even the most difficult decisions.

Wirtschaftsprognose

eine Untersuchung ihrer Voraussetzungen und Möglichkeiten

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Author: Oskar Morgenstern

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: N.A

Category: Business

Page: 128

View: 3925

The Oxford Handbook of Behavioral Economics and the Law

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Author: Eyal Zamir,Doron Teichman

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 0199397953

Category: Psychology

Page: 496

View: 5238

The past twenty years have witnessed a surge in behavioral studies of law and law-related issues. These studies have challenged the application of the rational-choice model to legal analysis and introduced a more accurate and empirically grounded model of human behavior. This integration of economics, psychology, and law is breaking exciting new ground in legal theory and the social sciences, shedding a new light on age-old legal questions as well as cutting edge policy issues. The Oxford Handbook of Behavioral Economics and Law brings together leading scholars of law, psychology, and economics to provide an up-to-date and comprehensive analysis of this field of research, including its strengths and limitations as well as a forecast of its future development. Its 29 chapters organized in four parts. The first part provides a general overview of behavioral economics. The second part comprises four chapters introducing and criticizing the contribution of behavioral economics to legal theory. The third part discusses specific behavioral phenomena, their ramifications for legal policymaking, and their reflection in extant law. Finally, the fourth part analyzes the contribution of behavioral economics to fifteen legal spheres ranging from core doctrinal areas such as contracts, torts and property to areas such as taxation and antitrust policy.

Stalking the Black Swan

Research and Decision Making in a World of Extreme Volatility

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Author: Kenneth A. Posner

Publisher: Columbia University Press

ISBN: 9780231521673

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 288

View: 2750

Kenneth A. Posner spent close to two decades as a Wall Street analyst, tracking the so-called "specialty finance" sector, which included controversial companies such as Countrywide, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CIT, and MasterCard many of which were caught in the subprime mortgage and capital markets crisis of 2007. While extreme volatility is nothing new in finance, the recent downturn caught many off guard, indicating that the traditional approach to decision making had let them down. Introducing a new framework for handling and evaluating extreme risk, Posner draws on years of experience to show how decision makers can best cope with the "Black Swans" of our time. Posner's shrewd assessment combines the classic fundamental research approach of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd with more recent developments in cognitive science, computational theory, and quantitative finance. He outlines a probabilistic approach to decision making that involves forecasting across a range of scenarios, and he explains how to balance confidence, react accurately to fast-breaking information, overcome information overload, zero in on the critical issues, penetrate the information asymmetry shielding corporate executives, and integrate the power of human intuition with sophisticated analytics. Emphasizing the computational resources we already have at our disposal our computers and our minds Posner offers a new track to decision making for analysts, investors, traders, corporate executives, risk managers, regulators, policymakers, journalists, and anyone who faces a world of extreme volatility.

Think Like a Freak

Secrets of the Rogue Economist

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Author: Steven D. Levitt,Stephen J. Dubner

Publisher: Penguin UK

ISBN: 1846147565

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 256

View: 6904

From the rule-breaking authors of international bestsellers Freakonomics and Superfreakonomics, this is the ultimate guide to how to Think Like a Freak The Freakonomics books have come to stand for something: challenging conventional wisdom; using data rather than emotion to answer questions; and learning to unravel the world's secret codes. Now Levitt and Dubner have gathered up what they have learned and turned it into a readable and practical toolkit for thinking differently - thinking, that is, like a Freak. Whether you are interested in the best way to improve your odds in penalty kicks, or in major global reforms, here is a blueprint for an entirely new way to solve problems. Along the way, you'll learn how the techniques of a Japanese hot-dog-eating champion can help you, the reason an Australian doctor swallowed a batch of dangerous bacteria, why Nigerian e-mail scammers make a point of saying they're from Nigeria, and why Van Halen's demanding tour contract banning brown M&Ms was really a safety measure. You'll learn why sometimes it's best to put away your moral compass, and smarter to think like a child. You will be given a master class in incentives-because for better or worse, incentives rule our world. And you will learn to quit before you fail, because you can't solve tomorrow's problem if you aren't willing to abandon today's dud. Levitt and Dubner see the world like no one else. Now you can too. Never before have such iconoclastic thinkers been so revealing - and so much fun to read.

Thinking

The New Science of Decision-Making, Problem-Solving, and Prediction in Life and Markets

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Author: Mr. John Brockman

Publisher: Harper Collins

ISBN: 0062258567

Category: Science

Page: 432

View: 9210

Unlock your mind From the bestselling authors of Thinking, Fast and Slow; The Black Swan; and Stumbling on Happiness comes a cutting-edge exploration of the mysteries of rational thought, decision-making, intuition, morality, willpower, problem-solving, prediction, forecasting, unconscious behavior, and beyond. Edited by John Brockman, publisher of Edge.org ("The world's smartest website"—The Guardian), Thinking presents original ideas by today's leading psychologists, neuroscientists, and philosophers who are radically expanding our understanding of human thought. Daniel Kahneman on the power (and pitfalls) of human intuition and "unconscious" thinking • Daniel Gilbert on desire, prediction, and why getting what we want doesn't always make us happy • Nassim Nicholas Taleb on the limitations of statistics in guiding decision-making • Vilayanur Ramachandran on the scientific underpinnings of human nature • Simon Baron-Cohen on the startling effects of testosterone on the brain • Daniel C. Dennett on decoding the architecture of the "normal" human mind • Sarah-Jayne Blakemore on mental disorders and the crucial developmental phase of adolescence • Jonathan Haidt, Sam Harris, and Roy Baumeister on the science of morality, ethics, and the emerging synthesis of evolutionary and biological thinking • Gerd Gigerenzer on rationality and what informs our choices

Why Intelligence Fails

Lessons from the Iranian Revolution and the Iraq War

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Author: Robert Jervis

Publisher: Cornell University Press

ISBN: 0801457610

Category: Political Science

Page: 248

View: 8622

The U.S. government spends enormous resources each year on the gathering and analysis of intelligence, yet the history of American foreign policy is littered with missteps and misunderstandings that have resulted from intelligence failures. In Why Intelligence Fails, Robert Jervis examines the politics and psychology of two of the more spectacular intelligence failures in recent memory: the mistaken belief that the regime of the Shah in Iran was secure and stable in 1978, and the claim that Iraq had active WMD programs in 2002. The Iran case is based on a recently declassified report Jervis was commissioned to undertake by CIA thirty years ago and includes memoranda written by CIA officials in response to Jervis's findings. The Iraq case, also grounded in a review of the intelligence community's performance, is based on close readings of both classified and declassified documents, though Jervis's conclusions are entirely supported by evidence that has been declassified. In both cases, Jervis finds not only that intelligence was badly flawed but also that later explanations-analysts were bowing to political pressure and telling the White House what it wanted to hear or were willfully blind-were also incorrect. Proponents of these explanations claimed that initial errors were compounded by groupthink, lack of coordination within the government, and failure to share information. Policy prescriptions, including the recent establishment of a Director of National Intelligence, were supposed to remedy the situation. In Jervis's estimation, neither the explanations nor the prescriptions are adequate. The inferences that intelligence drew were actually quite plausible given the information available. Errors arose, he concludes, from insufficient attention to the ways in which information should be gathered and interpreted, a lack of self-awareness about the factors that led to the judgments, and an organizational culture that failed to probe for weaknesses and explore alternatives. Evaluating the inherent tensions between the methods and aims of intelligence personnel and policymakers from a unique insider's perspective, Jervis forcefully criticizes recent proposals for improving the performance of the intelligence community and discusses ways in which future analysis can be improved.

More Than You Know

Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places (Updated and Expanded)

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Author: Michael J. Mauboussin

Publisher: Columbia University Press

ISBN: 023151347X

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 320

View: 1850

Since its first publication, Michael J. Mauboussin's popular guide to wise investing has been translated into eight languages and has been named best business book by BusinessWeek and best economics book by Strategy+Business. Now updated to reflect current research and expanded to include new chapters on investment philosophy, psychology, and strategy and science as they pertain to money management, this volume is more than ever the best chance to know more than the average investor. Offering invaluable tools to better understand the concepts of choice and risk, More Than You Know is a unique blend of practical advice and sound theory, sampling from a wide variety of sources and disciplines. Mauboussin builds on the ideas of visionaries, including Warren Buffett and E. O. Wilson, but also finds wisdom in a broad and deep range of fields, such as casino gambling, horse racing, psychology, and evolutionary biology. He analyzes the strategies of poker experts David Sklansky and Puggy Pearson and pinpoints parallels between mate selection in guppies and stock market booms. For this edition, Mauboussin includes fresh thoughts on human cognition, management assessment, game theory, the role of intuition, and the mechanisms driving the market's mood swings, and explains what these topics tell us about smart investing. More Than You Know is written with the professional investor in mind but extends far beyond the world of economics and finance. Mauboussin groups his essays into four parts-Investment Philosophy, Psychology of Investing, Innovation and Competitive Strategy, and Science and Complexity Theory-and he includes substantial references for further reading. A true eye-opener, More Than You Know shows how a multidisciplinary approach that pays close attention to process and the psychology of decision making offers the best chance for long-term financial results.

Investing: The Last Liberal Art

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Author: Robert G. Hagstrom

Publisher: Columbia University Press

ISBN: 023153101X

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 216

View: 5578

Robert G. Hagstrom is one of the best-known authors of investment books for general audiences. Turning his extensive experience as a portfolio manager at Legg Mason Capital Management into valuable guidance for professionals and nonprofessionals alike, he is the author of six successful books on investment, including The Warren Buffett Way, a New York Times best-seller that has sold more than a million copies. In this updated second edition of Investing: The Last Liberal Art, Hagstrom explores basic and fundamental investing concepts in a range of fields outside of economics, including physics, biology, sociology, psychology, philosophy, and literature. He discusses, for instance, how the theory of evolution disrupts the notion of the efficient market and how reading strategies for literature can be gainfully applied to investing research. Building on Charlie Munger's famous "latticework of mental models" concept, Hagstrom argues that it is impossible to make good investment decisions based solely on a strong knowledge of finance theory alone. He reinforces his concepts with additional data and a new chapter on mathematics, and updates his text throughout to reflect the developments of the past decade, particularly the seismic economic upheaval of 2008. He has also added a hundred new titles to the invaluable reading list concluding the book. Praise for the first edition: "I read this book in one sitting: I could not put it down."—Peter L. Bernstein, author of Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk "Elegant and irresistible. Robert G. Hagstrom makes the complex clear as he confidently crisscrosses through the disciplines of finance, biology, physics, and literature. The only way to understand investing better, [Investing] shows, is to understand the world better. Ideas spark off the page at every turn. This is simply a gem of a book."—James Surowiecki, New Yorker "Investing is a brisk and engaging read, and it is a pleasure to be in the presence of Hagstrom's agile mind."—International Herald Tribune

Waging War, Planning Peace

U.S. Noncombat Operations and Major Wars

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Author: Aaron Rapport

Publisher: Cornell University Press

ISBN: 0801455634

Category: Political Science

Page: 288

View: 6206

As the U.S. experience in Iraq following the 2003 invasion made abundantly clear, failure to properly plan for risks associated with postconflict stabilization and reconstruction can have a devastating impact on the overall success of a military mission. In Waging War, Planning Peace, Aaron Rapport investigates how U.S. presidents and their senior advisers have managed vital noncombat activities while the nation is in the midst of fighting or preparing to fight major wars. He argues that research from psychology—specifically, construal level theory—can help explain how individuals reason about the costs of postconflict noncombat operations that they perceive as lying in the distant future. In addition to preparations for "Phase IV" in the lead-up to the Iraq War, Rapport looks at the occupation of Germany after World War II, the planned occupation of North Korea in 1950, and noncombat operations in Vietnam in 1964 and 1965. Applying his insights to these cases, he finds that civilian and military planners tend to think about near-term tasks in concrete terms, seriously assessing the feasibility of the means they plan to employ to secure valued ends. For tasks they perceive as further removed in time, they tend to focus more on the desirability of the overarching goals they are pursuing rather than the potential costs, risks, and challenges associated with the means necessary to achieve these goals. Construal level theory, Rapport contends, provides a coherent explanation of how a strategic disconnect can occur. It can also show postwar planners how to avoid such perilous missteps.

Die Berechnung der Zukunft

Warum die meisten Prognosen falsch sind und manche trotzdem zutreffen - Der New York Times Bestseller

DOWNLOAD NOW »

Author: Nate Silver

Publisher: Heyne Verlag

ISBN: 3641112702

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 656

View: 6313

Zuverlässige Vorhersagen sind doch möglich! Nate Silver ist der heimliche Gewinner der amerikanischen Präsidentschaftswahlen 2012: ein begnadeter Statistiker, als »Prognose-Popstar« und »Wundernerd« weltberühmt geworden. Er hat die Wahlergebnisse aller 50 amerikanischen Bundesstaaten absolut exakt vorausgesagt – doch damit nicht genug: Jetzt zeigt Nate Silver, wie seine Prognosen in Zukunft Terroranschläge, Umweltkatastrophen und Finanzkrisen verhindern sollen. Gelingt ihm die Abschaffung des Zufalls? Warum werden Wettervorhersagen immer besser, während die Terrorattacken vom 11.09.2001 niemand kommen sah? Warum erkennen Ökonomen eine globale Finanzkrise nicht einmal dann, wenn diese bereits begonnen hat? Das Problem ist nicht der Mangel an Informationen, sondern dass wir die verfügbaren Daten nicht richtig deuten. Zuverlässige Prognosen aber würden uns helfen, Zufälle und Ungewissheiten abzuwehren und unser Schicksal selbst zu bestimmen. Nate Silver zeigt, dass und wie das geht. Erstmals wendet er seine Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung nicht nur auf Wahlprognosen an, sondern auf die großen Probleme unserer Zeit: die Finanzmärkte, Ratingagenturen, Epidemien, Erdbeben, den Klimawandel, den Terrorismus. In all diesen Fällen gibt es zahlreiche Prognosen von Experten, die er überprüft – und erklärt, warum sie meist falsch sind. Gleichzeitig schildert er, wie es gelingen kann, im Rauschen der Daten die wesentlichen Informationen herauszufiltern. Ein unterhaltsamer und spannender Augenöffner!